Building house on rock. (Matthew 7:24)

Query on the Oil Prices (Update)

Dear all,

It has been sometime for me to write. There are many rumors about the positive factors like 7.1 and Olympic, so bullish market is still strong, I really cannot imagine what the world would become after those times, would it be like Spain after Barcelona Olympic in 1992? Of course Black Wednesday is a total different story, but let's see...

2 years ago, since Hurricane Katrina, Oil prices are manipulated by politicians and could never go back. Recently, I was told that Oil price would go up astonishingly, the historical $78 Brent and $77 WTI marked in early August last year would be overwritten again. Even scientists have recently confirmed that world oil reserve would last for at least another 40 years, and even McDonald said they would reuse their French Fry oil for vehicles fuels, the recent oil price movement is worrying.

Since Gordon Brown took over Tony Blair, the bombs in UK raised the security alert level to red. While we are having holiday, Chevas has visited Iran for the anti-US energy plan. WTI has risen more than 4% within a week ($71 now).

A friend told me, because of Oil companies restructuring recently, it is not surprise to see Oil to go $100. :O

Thanks Ken, since then I have been reading more news about WTI and Brent, from US energy information administration: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm
You can download the prices of the oils. There are signs that WTI will take over Brent very soon as well: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=abqxYe1wgoXM

Even the WTI discount to Brent now is about 2%, the rise of oil price provides a good rising momentum for WTI price.

I hope you are still reading at this point, since after building all logical facts, here I have something want to share. We cannot reserve oil ourselves, but as we see WTI prices would go high, I suggest considering ETFs. To be honest I was told to buy an ETF, however, I want to go through all with you, I have reviewed the ETFs, there are 3 we could consider: DBO, OIL and USO which are based on WTI in some levels. (you can type "WTI ETF" in Yahoo or Google to find more)

Of course, if oil prices are high, you can always consider other oil companies, like those from China which you hear a lot from news. Or a cheaper PBR for South America oils which has just split 1 to 2. However the there won't have discount on WTI against Brent.

Cheers,
Eric
(I have long position of USO)